Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer.GEOFF ROBINS / AFP/Getty Images

It looks like Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives will not win Monday’s election.

A very accurate, independent and unbiased website – – brings together every bit of data gathered during this election and publishes a daily update.

For every electoral riding in the country – all 338 of them (hence the website’s name), declares if the riding is, from among the four major political parties and independents, “safe”, “leaning”, “likely” or a “toss-up.”

If the Conservatives do not lose a single seat they now hold, AND they take every seat from the other parties that says is leaning or likely to go Conservative, AND they win every seat that says is too close to call, the very best Scheer’s party could do is 127 seats, up from the current 95.

Then there’s reality. Outside Alberta/Saskatchewan and Quebec, there’s not much momentum for huge political change. And, realistically, the Conservatives will lose a few of the seats they now hold.


If the Conservatives could win half the ridings says it could possibly take back from other parties, and loses a few as well, let’s hazard a guess of 119 seats on Monday, i.e. a net gain of 24.

The worst-case scenario for the Liberals, should every riding that’s leaning, likely or a toss-up NOT go their way, is 108 seats, way down from their majority of 177 seats when the election was called. suggests the Liberals could possibly lose 11 seats in the Maritimes, 13 in Quebec, 23 in Ontario, seven in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, three in Alberta, nine in B.C., and three in the northern territories.

Then, once again, there’s reality. The Liberals will not lose every one of those 69 contested seats. The rest of the country is not as mad at Justin Trudeau’s Liberals as we are in Alberta. Outside of Alberta/Saskatchewan, the Canadian economy is in good shape.

If the Liberals lose half those contested seats and win a handful back from other parties … let’s give them 146 seats on Monday.

The real election storyline in the last week has been the realization in English-speaking Canada that the resurgent Bloc Quebecois could take 13 of the 14 seats now held by the New Democrats in Quebec, and up to 16 of the 40 seats the Liberals now have in La Belle Province.

In’s best-case scenario for the Bloc, it grows from its current 10 seats to 39.

So where does this leave Alberta?

Totally screwed, that’s where!

The only way we will ever get out of this lethargic, stale economy that is sucking out our lifeblood is through construction of one or two new pipelines to export our oil overseas, send more to the U.S., and replace imported oil in Eastern Canada.

Only the Conservatives support us. The rest of Canada’s politicians, as will be demonstrated in Monday’s vote, has rejected Alberta’s economic well-being in favour of saving the planet.

The Liberals, with a minority government, will depend on New Democrat support and a handful of Greens to stay in power.

The New Democrats, Greens and Bloc Quebecois are adamantly, unequivocally, utterly and irrationally dead set against the building of any new pipelines in Canada.  And Justin Trudeau doesn’t much like pipelines either. The tail that is the decimated New Democrats and a few Greens will wag the Liberal dog.

Alberta is screwed. No amount of “diversification” will offset the no-growth/shrinkage of our clean, ethical oil and gas extraction/processing industry. If attitudes towards carbon-based fuels in the rest of Canada do not change, Alberta will slowly but inexorably drift down from the “have” provinces of Canada to the ranks of the “have-nots”.

Alberta separatism sentiment is going to again explode, with political credibility this time around.

How could it not? And not, this time, from the far-right fringes of the political spectrum.

For the first time, the average Albertan, good Canadians that we consider ourselves to be, will have to seriously consider the possibility of independence – or the formation of a Bloc Alberta to hold the threat of Alberta/Saskatchewan separation over the heads of the rest of Canada.

For what it’s worth, the Hicks on Biz prediction for Monday’s election. Oh to be proved wrong!

Liberals 146; Conservatives 119; New Democrats 35; Bloc Quebecois 30; Greens 4; Other 4.